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| An Introduction To NFL Preseason Handicapping |
| Written by Ross Everett | |||
| Tuesday, 29 December 2009 08:54 | |||
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Betting preseason NFL games never fails to elicit an irreconcilable difference of opinion among sports betting enthusiasts. Some consider it a very poor wagering opportunity, while others maintain that there's no better moneymaking opportunity in sports than pro football's preseason. The truth is probably somewhere between the two extremes--NFL preseason betting must be approached with caution and discipline, but offers the potential to make a tidy profit before the regular season kicks off.
Betting preseason NFL games never fails to elicit an irreconcilable difference of opinion among sports betting enthusiasts. Some consider it a very poor wagering opportunity, while others maintain that there's no better moneymaking opportunity in sports than pro football's preseason. The truth is probably somewhere between the two extremes--NFL preseason betting must be approached with caution and discipline, but offers the potential to make a tidy profit before the regular season kicks off. The most compelling argument against preseason wagering is simply that the games don't count. While there are often spots during the regular season where teams may seem more or less motivated, in theory they all want to win. That's not something that can be taken as a 'given' during the preseason, however, as the individual agendas of NFL coaching staffs can very widely. Some might want to win games to establish a winning attitude, others might put a greater focus on working in a new offensive or defensive scheme. Others may prioritize evaluating talent at key positions, while others may simply want to make it through to the regular season without any significant injuries. With all of the uncertainty swirling around preseason football, handicapping wins and losses against the pointspread can be exceedingly difficult. But like the old saying goes "every dark cloud has a silver lining". And the divergent agendas at play in preseason football can be seen as precisely why it is a good wagering opportunity. For example, say the Superbowl champion Pittsburgh Steelers are set to play an 'also ran' team like the Houston Texans. By regular season standards, the Steelers would almost certainly be favored. In the preseason, however, they'll often have a different agenda for the individual game. A "better" team has more concern about protecting key players. and usually has fewer personnel decisions to deal with. They don't need to worry about implementing coaching changes, or creating 'team chemistry'. As a result, 'better' teams frequently approach preseason games as a mere annoyance. On the other hand, consider the 'lesser' team in a preseason matchup. They often have a number of key starting positions they need to fill, along with backup positions up for grabs. They may have new coaching staffs that players want to impress, new offensive or defensive schemes to implement. Most significantly, 'lesser' teams often view the preseason as an opportunity to build team chemistry or create a winning attitude. A team trying to rebuild can benefit from winning *any* games, regardless of whether or not they count in the standings. For a league doormat, a win over an elite level opponent can serve as a rare highlight of a losing season. Even teams that put a low priority on preseason games don't want to lose them all. For this reason, a longterm winning situation has been to bet on teams that lose their first two preseason games outright. Over the past twenty years, 0-2 teams in this spot have produced a winning percentage right around 60%. There may be no greater determining factor of a team's preseason success than the philosophy of their head coach. Some coaches just don't like to lose *any* game, and usually these hyper-competitive teams are good preseason bets. Bill Parcells, for example, was legendary for his serious approach to preseason games. The coaches that he mentored like the NY Giants' Tom Coughlin have to some extent carried on this legacy. While the "good" preseason coaches are often reflected in the pointspreads assigned to their team, a motivated team is almost always worth a look. The Internet has become a very valuable weapon in the NFL preseason handicapper's arsenal. Simply following the local media reports of NFL teams can often produce a wealth of 'mission critical' betting information. The combination of anxious beat writers, little in the way of 'real' news, and a less guarded approach by coaches to games that 'don't count' can often reveal game strategies, playing time for key personnel, or even a team's specific agenda for a particular game. Sometime coaches will come right out and say that evaluating a certain position, or working on a specific offensive scheme is their top priority for a game. It's a great way to find not only good teams to bet on, but strong situations to go against teams that are focused on something other than outscoring their opponent. In closing, the best advice is to not be afraid of wagering on preseason football, but to not get too excited about it either. It's a good chance to grind out a small profit, but definitely not the moneymaking opportunity of a lifetime. There will be plenty of other"and better"football wagering opportunities down the road. Discipline and self-control is always in your best interest when betting on sports, and that certainly is the case in the preseason NFL. About the Author: Ross Everett is a widely published freelance writer who covers travel, poker and sports handicapping. He is a consulting handicapper for Anatta Sports where he is responsible for providing daily free sports picks. In his spare time he enjoys fine dining, fencing and deep sea diving. He lives in Southern Nevada with four dogs and a pet coyote.
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